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State poised for historic recall scramble Once considered a long shot, the recall effort is gathering momentum after donations by Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista, who wants to be governor, put hundreds of paid petition circulators on the streets. Recall organizers now maintain they have more than half the nearly 900,000 names they need to force an election and expect to complete the signature-gathering campaign by the Fourth of July. If the campaign finishes by then, a recall election could be held in November under the state Constitution. If it takes organizers longer, the election could be combined with the March 2004 presidential primary. Such an election would be a historic first for a state that has seen 31 recall attempts flop over the past century, said Los Angeles political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, the widely quoted scholar at the University of Southern California. A recall election would decide not only whether Davis should be removed from office, but who should replace him in a separate question on the same ballot. There would be no primary, and no run-off either, to whittle down the field of candidates to a manageable number. The field would include any ---- and every ---- person who met the state's minimum candidate qualifications. Unlike in a typical general election, where there is one candidate representing the Democratic Party and one carrying the Republican banner, the recall election could see multiple candidates from both major parties. Whoever received the most votes, no matter how few and how narrow the margin of victory, that person would walk away with the governorship. "It would be unique," said Jack Pitney, professor of government for Claremont-McKenna College in Los Angeles County. The chance of a recall making the ballot grows every day, as hundreds of paid petition circulators fan out across the state. Bebitch Jeffe rates that chance at 40 percent and Pitney at 50 percent or better. As the likelihood grows, political experts are pondering a number of questions. For example, if Davis were to be recalled, who would run in the free-for-all to replace him? Would Democrats jeopardize their hold on Sacramento by fielding too many candidates and diluting their vote? Or would it be the Republicans who squander a rare opportunity to capture the top statewide office? "Republicans might have a slight advantage, if only because they have a smaller bench," Pitney said, as fewer GOP officials have the clout and name recognition to mount a serious challenge. "On the Democratic side, every constitutional officer is a plausible candidate." In addition to retaining the governor's office, Democrats in November 2002 swept all seven other statewide posts, including lieutenant governor, secretary of state and controller. Besides those officials, prominent state lawmakers could entertain bids for the governor's office. But among Republicans, candidates are probably limited to Issa and Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon, who lost last year's election to Davis by five percentage points, Pitney said. Pitney says he does not believe the land of Hollywood will see a candidacy by action-movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is said to be very interested in being governor one day. "He's probably not ready. And I think he has enough self discipline to recognize that," Pitney said.
Bebitch Jeffe also said there is a strong chance that many Democratic candidates would emerge, especially if Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante made a move to bolt ahead of a
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